The Demographic Transition Model

The changes in population growth rates and the effect on population can be shown on the Demographic Transition Model (Population Cycle).

Fantastic explanation of the DTM: http://www.bbc.co.uk/scotland/education/geog/population/dtm.shtml
Complete the DTM online activity: http://www.bbc.co.uk/scotland/education/geog/population/activities/dtm_activity.shtml

Demographic Transition Model

This can be divided into five stages:

Stage 1 - High Fluctuating

Birth Rate and Death rate are both high. Population growth is slow and fluctuating.
Reasons
Birth Rate is high as a result of:

• Lack of family planning
• High Infant Mortality Rate: putting babies in the 'bank'
• Need for workers in agriculture
• Religious beliefs
• Children as economic assets

Death Rate is high because of:

• High levels of disease
• Famine
• Lack of clean water and sanitation
• Lack of health care
• War
• Competition for food from predators such as rats
• Lack of education

Typical of Britain in the 18th century and the Least Economically Developed Countries (LEDC's) today.

Stage 2 - Early Expanding

Birth Rate remains high. Death Rate is falling. Population begins to rise steadily.
Reasons
Death Rate is falling as a result of:

• Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine)
• Improved Hygiene (Water for drinking boiled)
• Improved sanitation
• Improved food production and storage
• Improved transport for food
• Decreased Infant Mortality Rates

Typical of Britain in 19th century; Bangladesh; Nigeria

Stage 3 - Late Expanding

Birth Rate starts to fall. Death Rate continues to fall. Population rising.
Reasons:

• Family planning available
• Lower Infant Mortality Rate
• Increased mechanization reduces need for workers
• Increased standard of living
• Changing status of women

Typical of Britain in late 19th and early 20th century; China; Brazil

Stage 4 - Low Fluctuating

Birth Rate and Death Rate both low. Population steady.
Typical of USA; Sweden; Australia; Britain
(Source)

Stage 5 - Negative Pop. Growth

Birth Rate low, Death rate falls below birth rate.
Population growth is now negative. Examples: Japan, Italy

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Watch this movie:

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‘The world population’: Internet presentation

Go to: http://www.ined.fr/en/everything_about_population/animations/world_population/

1. Click on 'Launch the movie'
2. For each 'chapter', take some notes.
3. You can pause the presentation when you need to write.

Here is a guide which you can use to take your notes:

Population Growth today

• Current rate of world population increase.

World Population history

• Rates of growth over the last two-thousand years
• Future rates of world population growth
• Questions posed by the narrator?

Early demographic equilibrium

• History of births – patterns.
• Why the world population remained stable.
• What regulated population growth

The demographic transition

• Explain the stages of the model
• How the model relates to Europe and other regions of the world. Why they are at different stages.
• Why the world population will level off.
• Future projections.

The future world population

• Long term UN projections (and consequences)
• Replacement fertility
• Low fertility
• High fertility
• Constant fertility

Conclusion